Pittsburgh -6.5 (15 units)

Sunday Capper Projection: Pittsburgh 31 Arizona 13

Good Luck!

Pittsburgh -6.5 vs. Arizona / 46.5

In my opinion, the biggest question mark in this game from a handicapping standpoint is what to make of Arizona. I thought I had a handle on them coming into their first game against the Falcons during WC weekend (Division winner coming in underrated b/c they haven’t had anything to play for in 3-4 weeks), and I guess that came to fruition. But I also thought I had a handle on them the past 2 weeks against more physical teams in Carolina and Philadelphia, and they proved me way wrong. They have been extremely physical on defense and up front on the Offensive Line the past two weeks, and have put each of these so called NFC “Powers” to shame. The one thing I thought going into the Carolina/Arizona game was that it would be near impossible for the Cards to eliminate both the vaunted Panthers running attack and Steve Smith. The problem in that game for the Panthers was that they fell behind so large so quickly that they abandoned their running game. Ok, that made sense to me.

In the Eagles game, I figured that Jim Johnson’s zone blitz would overwhelm the pass happy Cards, and force the turnover-prone Kurt Warner into putting the ball on the ground. I also figured the Eagles could stop the Card rejuvenated running game even if they were sending massive blitzes all day. I was wrong on a number of fronts. When I really look at how that game played out, I honestly think it came down to gameplanning and coaching. This is not to say that Andy Reid, Marty Morhinwheg, and Jim Johnson are bad coaches - far from it. I just think that they came into the Arizona game with a transparent gameplan, and the Cards excellent coaching staff called them on it. Philly’s D over the years and Jim Johnson have gained a reputation of bringing it strong with the zone blitz. They have proven so effective at this over time that they can let their tactics stand on their own…..they don’t care if you know what they’re doing….they’re going to do it anyway. The zone blitz that Johnson runs is, by its very nature, unpredictable.  He doesn’t care if you know it’s coming, because he figures that he can overload one side of the LOS, the opponent will set up their blockers to compensate, and then he will back off of that spot and send them from somewhere else.While that may be true, what particularly impressed me about Todd Haley and this offensive attack for the Cards was that they seemed to know where the blitz was coming from and when.

As I mentioned in my breakdown last week, Warner is not particularly good when his first option off of a timing route is taken away and he has to sit back in the pocket, go through progressions in the face of a rush, and determine who to throw the ball to. That situation fortunately for him did not come to light until the third quarter once the Cards had already built up a big lead, thanks in large part to the play calling. When the Eagles overloaded the right hand side, Haley had a screen right called, which would go for 30 yards. When he overloaded the left side and sent guys, Haley had a quick slant called, which would go for 15 yards. When he sensed that the Eagles were overplaying something, he called the QB toss-back play, which found Larry Fitgerald singled up way down the field and became a sure TD as soon as the ball was in the air. The playcalling was simply brilliant offensively agains the Eagles. The Eagles told the Cardinals - this is what we’re doing, try and stop us - and Haley took the challenge.

Similarly, I felt like this is what happened on the other side of the ball, too. I don’t think the Eagles have an offense this year that they can just roll out there and will run on Auto-Pilot, much as they thought their D would. However, I don’t think Reid, Marty and Co. thought they needed to incorporate anything special to beat this team. I think that they thought they could just march into U of Phoenix stadium, play their vanilla Offensive gameplan, blitz the shit out of Arizona, and they would win the game going away. Obviously a mistake.Arizona DC Clancy Pendergast also called a brilliant game. He basically took over the role of Jim Johnson during this contest. He was getting EXTREMELY creative with his blitzers, dropping MLBs and even defensive linemen deep into coverage while overloading a side of the line. It worked. Marty Morhinwheg did not expect any of this, and it threw the Eagles OL for a huge loop.These aspects, in my opinion, were the difference in the game.

In order for a great gameplan to work against a very good team, you need great players to execute it, and don’t get me wrong, the Cards have those great players. But to me, the question is not so much can the Steelers stop the Cards - it’s….do the Steelers have enough respect for the Cardinals that they won’t make the same mistakes that the Eagles coaching staff made.In addition to these aspects, I also feel that the Eagles were over confident as a whole.Ron Jaworski for one made the point that the entire city of Philadelphia expected the Eagles to march through the Cards and were already planning on the SB trip. I do believe that these sorts of attitudes and atmospheres in general can make their way onto the team, and I certainly felt that that also played a factor in this outcome.

To answer the other question - no, I don’t feel the Steelers will take the Cardinals lightly, due to many of these factors. Yes - they will blitz. Will they run the same blitzes they have run all year and allow Warner and Haley to dissect them?  Hell no. Will they possibly, at times, play back a little more and make sure Larry Fitz doesn’t beat them?  Hell yes they will.

Bottom line to me is that I can’t see the Arizona offense getting anything going against this defense. Arizona will NOT run on Pittsburgh, I don’t care how wide they spread their formation. The running game is out, end of story. That leaves Arizona one dimensional. And the Steelers certainly have the playmakers in the secondary between Polamalu, Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, Ryan Clark and company to limit the Cards passing attack if you think they can get any pressure at all on Warner, which I do. Arizona is going to have a more difficult time in this matchup game-planning for Dick Lebeau’s defense and calling plays to negate their strengths. Numbers lie to an extent, because the Eagles look similar to the Steelers from a numbers perspective, but having watched this Steeler defense all season, it is quite obvious who the better 11 is.

This Steeler D is not one of the best ever as being talked about, in my opinion. I do think they’re vulnerable to a deep passing attack to some extent - but I don’t believe the Cards have the type of offense or offensive line to let Warner hang back there on seven step drops and wait for Fitzgerald and Boldin to get open. Many of the big plays these two make are a result of YAC, or even on the back end of trick plays. You don’t see either one beating teams deep often on Post or Go Routes - and THAT is where I think the Steelers are vulnerable.

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are playing great. The Steelers are just solid, not spectacular offensively. They will try to wear Arizona out by running the ball with Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, and they will let Big Ben take his shots off of playaction on early downs, which could hurt this aggressive Cardinals offense on occasion.  Arizona showed the Eagles a new look 2 weeks ago, but can they continue to throw new wrinkles at teams? When does the ingenuity Pendergast and Co keep inventing run out of steam?  I think this is the week. When you can’t do what you want offensively, things have a way of cascading to the other side of the ball as well.

The Steelers are one of the best perimeter blocking teams in the league, and I believe that they can find some space out on the edge to exploit. I think that they will run Willie Parker outside and also work some RB screens and WR/TE screens into the mix to take advantage of Pendergast’s aggressiveness.  Pittsburgh OC Bruce Arians will spread the Cards out on 2nd and 3rd downs and try to exploit that aggressiveness. And if the Cards choose to counter by sitting back a bit more, Arians will be more than happy to bring the formations in tight, pound the ball between the tackles for 3 downs at a time, and let Big Ben manage the game.

Either way, this is a tougher, better football team than Arizona. The Steelers are very well coached, and the Cards don’t have many more tricks in their bag that they can continue to pull out. The Steelers will shut down this vaunted Arizona aerial attack, and limit their opportunities to let Fitzgerald beat them. They won’t be spectacular offensively, but will certainly do enough to take command of this game, and if the Cards get too far behind, this one will have the potential to get really ugly, in my opinion. I could see the Steelers winning solidly, like 27-10 or so.  I could also see them running away with this one. Either way, I like them to cover the 7.

Philly -3 (-125) - 10 units

Philly/Arizona Over 41 + Philly +2 6 pt teaser - 5 units

Good luck!