Wild Card Sunday Plays
Wild Card Saturday Plays
Arizona EVEN vs. Atlanta (5 units)
Arizona/Atlanta Over 50.5 (2.5 units)
Indianapolis EVEN vs. San Diego (5 units)
Indianapolis/San Diego Under 49.5 (5 units)
Good luck!
Wild Card Weekend
Atlanta Falcons EVEN at Arizona Cardinals / 50.5
This should be an exciting game featuring two of the league’s more potent offenses. However, that is where the similarities end. The Falcons sport a balanced attack featuring one of the league’s best running attacks, while the Cardinals running game is mostly anemic. The Cardinals, though, have one of the top passing attacks in the league, and the most explosive WR duo in the NFL. The first thing that may come to mind when looking at this matchup is momentum. The Falcons have it, and the Cardinals don’t. The Falcons won 5 of their last 6 games to clinch a wild card berth, whereas the Cardinals ended the season on a sour note despite beating Seattle in Week 17. Arizona had the division and #4 seed wrapped up as early as Week 15, and did not really bring their A game or even their A team in losses to Minnesota and a blowout in New England. I am not putting much stock in this. Arizona fielded a very competetive team for the rest of the season when they had a full complement of players at their disposal, especially at home. They are well rested, healthy, and should be ready to play. The key for them will be to stop Michael Turner, Jerious Norwood and the Falcons running attack and forcing the ball into the hands of the talented and poised rookie Matt Ryan, where their opportunistic Defense (5th in the league in takeaways) can try and force the young QB into mistakes.
I favor the Cardinals chances to do just that by turning this game into a shootout. I really like their matchup on the other side of the ball, with the savvy Warner, Boldin, Fitzgerald, and Breason facing off against that Falcon secretary. Lawyer Milloy should be back for this game for Atlanta, but they simply don’t have the size, strength or talent to hold up against Arizona’s passing attack. The health status of DEs Jamaal Anderson and certainly John Abraham will be very important, because the Falcons must get to Warner if they have any hope of slowing Arizona down. Abraham looks like he will be able to give it a go, but Anderson is more questionable. The Cards are fairly good at protecting Warner (11th in the league in sacks allowed), and they get rid of the ball fairly quickly, so I like their chances of winning this phase of the game decisively.
What I envision here is a game that evolves into somewhat of a shootout. I think the Falcons will have some success running the ball, forcing Arizona to stack the box on early running downs and opening some things up on the back end for Ryan. I think that will be necessary for Atlanta regardless, because as mentioned, I don’t think they will be able to stop the Arizona passing attack. I think there is a lot of value in taking the Cardinals here, even with the line down a few points to a pick. The Cardinals are a very good team at home (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) and the Falcons have struggled a bit on the road (4-4 SU and ATS). I think the Cardinals will win this game by a score or more in a relatively high-scoring affair. I will call it Arizona 37 Atlanta 27. I like the Cardinals and the Over.
Indianapolis EVEN at San Diego / 49.5
This Charger team is very tough to get a read on. They definitely have one of the most talented rosters in the league, there is no doubt about that. But they have struggled offensively at times this year, and their defense seems to be sorely lacking that fire it has with a healthy Shawne Merriman. Another big question mark for this team heading into this game is health. Ladanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are both extremely questionable for this one. With Merriman on IR, that means that basically the Chargers 3 best players going into the season either won’t or may not play in this game, and it leads you to question whether this team, with those 3 players either out or a shell of their former selves - really IS one of the most talented teams in the league. The Chargers have gotten it done this year mostly on the arm of Philip Rivers, who finally emerged this season into a franchise-type QB, and also with a lot of help from WRs Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, as well as FB Mike Tolbert and backup RB Darren Sproles. LT’s play has been spotty at best this season, as he has dealt with nagging injuries, and the same can be said for Gates. Still, though, this is a passing offense to be reckoned with. They rank tops in the league in many categories, and they are rolling, with high-scoring outputs recently against Denver and before that a very good Tampa Bay defense on the road. These teams have already met once this season in San Diego, with the Colts clinging to a 3 point victory after blowing a 10 point lead - will the outcome be the same this weekend?
What I can decipher from this game in looking at all factors is that the Colts match up very well against the Chargers. The Colts have one of the best pass defenses in the league, ranking first in DYPA, and 5th in passing yards/game allowed. They also rush the passer extremely well, with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney essentially breaking out in the 2nd half of the season and keying the Colts comeback after a slow start out of the gates. And yes, Superman Sanders is expected to play in this game, which will give them a boost in both phases of the game defensively. I don’t expect the Chargers to have much success running the ball, with LT playing or without LT playing. They just are not running it well this season - the blocking up front has been poor, and LT hasn’t looked like LT. Sproles is actually probably more of a threat to the Colts - they are probably still having nightmares about the little guy after he burned them in the passing and return games in last year’s playoff game. So essentially you have strength against strength in the passing game and weakness against weakness in the running game on that side of the ball, and when that happens, I usually give the edge to the defense.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts have a very favorable matchup in the passing game, as well. The Chargers 2nd to last in the NFL in pass D and they are going against the recently crowned MVP in Manning and the league’s 5th ranked passing offense. The Chargers don’t rush the QB particularly well, and the Colts and Manning are always great at pass blocking/avoiding sacks, so I don’t expect that to be a factor. What you can expect to see the Chargers do is essentially drop 7 guys into coverage all day, as they won’t be scared of the Colts ineffective running game (31st in the league). This will open up the draw play and the underneath passing attack for Manning. I would expect the Colts offensive gameplan to be very similar to their Super Bowl XLI effort, centering around a healthy Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. I would expect them to be involved heavily, and catch a lot of balls. I would also expect Dallas Clark to be a big factor.
What does this all add up to? Really, the under looks very appealing to me. Both of these teams have a lot of firepower, but the Colts play better ball control than any team in the league, and while they may score 70% of the time they get the ball, those drives are almost never quick strikes, often taking up 8-10 minutes of clock in doing so. The Chargers are very potent, but again, you have strength against strength on that side of the ball. I like the Colts to edge this one out, using the savvy of Manning and Tom Moore to find points when they need them against a Charger D that might be able to mask its weaknesses a bit - but only for so long. I will call this one Colts 24 Chargers 17.
Baltimore -3.5 at Miami / 38
This game features a couple of teams off of remarkable turnarounds from a year ago. Both brought in new coaching regimes, and they have made a world of difference. Baltimore needed a fresh voice after Brian Billick had been there for so many years, and more importantly, they needed a fresh approach. This has been a team traditionally with a great defense and a solid rushing attack, but under Billick they were too reliant on the pass, and they did not showcase their strengths. Under new coach John Harbaugh and OC Cam Cameron, they are more creative, more bruising, and just smarter. The Dolphins and HC Tony Sparano have had a notable resurgence of their own. This is a team that has become one of the most prepared, efficient, creative, and smartest teams in the league in terms of game-planning, efficiency, ball protection, etc.
When you look at these two teams, though, I believe this game is a mismatch, and I suppose the spread plays that out. Rarely do you see a road favorite in the playoffs. When you look at Miami’s schedule, results, and numbers, you really can see the value of their coaching staff. Miami doesn’t really do anything exceedingly well, but boasts an 11-5 record. They do this primarily because they protect QB Chad Pennington, don’t turn the ball over, and have a sound defense. They really heavily on the misdirection created by their Wildcat formation, and the efficiency of Pennington on offense, utilizing a short passing game. The Ravens will eat that up, and did in their first matchup, where they held Miami to 72 rushing yards by stacking the line of scrimmage, shooting gaps and eating up RBs Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in the backfield when they tried to run the Wildcat. Baltimore’s defensive weakness is really their defensive backfield, but in order to exploit that, you need to be able to throw the ball deep which requires a QB with a big arm and the ability to keep them off of your QB. Though the Miami OL has not allowed a lot of sacks this year, Pennington doesn’t have a big arm, and there is no way they can keep this aggressive Baltimore Defense off of him for that long. Pennington will dink and dunk, and really that will be all he should have against this Ravens D that will surely shut down the run and the deep passing game with their physical front 7. Baltimore is 2nd in the league against the run and the pass, and 2nd in the league in DYPA. Miami could be in for a long day offensively.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens will ground and pound the ball. They do have the ability to beat you deep with WR Mark Clayton, and Flacco loves posession WR Derrick Mason and TE Todd Heap to move the chains. Expect the Ravens to run the ball soundly on first and second downs early, setting up the young Flacco to hit Mason, Heap and his backs out of the backfield and put together scoring drives. OC Cam Cameron will get aggressive occasionally and take some shots either down the field to Clayton, or using some of the trick plays we have now grown accustomed to seeing from him. Miami can rush the passer well and does a decent job of stopping the run, but the Ravens running game is more physical, and they should also be able to prey on the Dolphins 25th ranked pass defense when need be.
I don’t expect the Ravens to blow this one open, but they should be able to piece together more scoring drives than Miami without a doubt, and win fairly comfortably on the road. They are the better, more talented, more physical team, and Miami doesn’t have an advantage this week on the sidelines. Baltimore has beaten every team they have faced this year that is not clearly better than they are (only losses were to Pitt twice, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and NY Giants). They have impressive victories at Dallas, vs. Philly, vs. Washington, at Miami, vs. Jacksonville, and at Houston. Miami’s resume is not nearly as impressive, and Baltimore should handle this team, even on the road. Baltimore 27 Miami 13. I don’t really have a feel on the total one way or another.
Philadelphia -3 at Minnesota / 41
The big question in this game is which Eagle team will show up? The one we’ve seen lately, who beat the tar out of Dallas and knocked off the defending Super Bowl champ Giants, or the one who scored 3 points in a loss at Washington, clung to a 13-13 tie against the lowly Bengals, and the one who was hammered 31-13 by the Baltimore Ravens? If the former shows up, they should win this game solidly. The Eagles match up very well with the Vikings. The Vikings struggle to defend the pass, and the Eagles have one of the better passing attacks in the league, led by Playoff vet Donovan McNabb and rookie WR Desean Jackson. The Vikings rush the passer fairly well, but they may be without big, space-hogging DT Pat Williams, and the Eagles only surrendered 23 sacks on the season. They should give McNabb plenty of time to find his targets down the field. McNabb has been playing great as of late with the exception of that Washington game, and with the stable conditions inside the warm Metrodome, without Williams and against this shaky Viking Pass D, this game sets up well for him.
The loss of Williams will really hurt the Vikings top ranked run defense, too. Williams is basically the cog that makes this machine go. The Eagles won’t concentrate on getting explosive RB Brian Westbrook the ball in the running game too heavily, but without Williams, they could utilize him on a lot of screens, draws and the like. Westbrook and McNabb will have a lot more room in general to operate. This Eagles offense is hitting on all cylinders, and the Vikes don’t have the horses to stop them in this one.
On the other side of the ball, Minnesota will try to protect the young and mistake-prone Tarvaris Jackson by getting the ball into the hands of Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor as much as humanly possible. Peterson is the games best running back (when he holds onto the ball), and can bust the big one at any time. The bad news for him is that this Eagles defense is very stout against both the run and the pass. They are near the top of the league in yards allowed per game both on the ground and through the air, as well as defensive rushings yards/attempt and DPYA. DC Jim Johnson does a great job of disguising his blitzers and creating all kinds of pressure on opposing QBs. That is going to be very tough for Jackson to handle, especially if the Eagles offense is able to create scoring opportunities of their own, as I anticipate they will. This could be a long day for the Vikings offense and Jackson, in particular. Once he is forced to start throwing the ball, the aggressive Eagle defense will undoubtedly put enough pressure on him for him to start making some of those patented Tarvaris Jackson bad decisions, and this one could devolve into a laugher. If Peterson and Taylor are able to get some room, the Vikings will have a chance in this one. It’s tough to bottle up Adrian Peterson completely, no matter how solid you are against the run, but as long as the Eagles don’t let him run wild and show up to play offensively, they should win this one.
I will call this game Philadelphia 31 Minnesota 17.